6: LET GO AT THE TOP, STRATEGIES
Don't mistake a clear view for a short distance.
The terror of devolution is that a firm must remain intact while it descends into the harsh deserts between the mountains of successes. It must continue to be more or less profitable while it devolves. You can't jump from peak to peak. No matter how smart or how speedy an organization is, it can't get to where it wants to go unless it muddles across an undesirable place one step at a time. Enduring a period of less than optimal fitness is doubly difficult when a very clear image of the new perfection is in plain sight.
For instance, sometime in the early 1990s the Encyclopaedia Britannica company saw that they were stuck on a local peak. They were at the top: the best encyclopedia in print. They had a worldwide sales force peddling a world-recognized brand. But rising fast nearby was something new: CD-ROM. The outline of this dazzling new mountain was clear. Its height was inspiring. But it was a different realm from their old mountain: no paper, no door-to-door salespeople, cheap, little dinky disks on the shelf, and a media that required constant updates. They would have to undo much of what they knew. Still there, clear as could be, was their future. But while the destination was extremely clear, the path that led to it was treacherous. And, it turned out, the route was even longer than they thought. The company spent millions, lost salespeople in droves, and verged on collapse. They entered a scary period during which neither print nor CD worked. Eventually they completed the CD-ROM encyclopedia they had envisioned many years earlier, but only after an outsider (Microsoft) published a better one. Encyclopaedia Britannica's future is still in doubt. But their travails are common. Says futurist Paul Saffo: "We tend to mistake a clear view of the future for a short distance."
To scale a higher peak -- a potentially greate gain -- often means crossing a valley of less fitness first. A clear view of the future should not be mistaken for a short distance.
Today, nearly everyone in business has a clear view of the future of TV. It's something that comes to you in the same way you get the internet. You choose your shows, from 500 channels. You can shop, maybe interact with a game, or click for more information about a movie you are watching. The technology seems feasible, the physics logical, and the economics plausible. But Future TV looks a lot closer than it really is because the path between here and there winds through a barren desert with little optimal about it. Although the economics may work later, they barely work out now in the alkali flats. It may be that none of the large television or computer or phone companies are sufficiently nimble (or hungry) to make it across the valley of death--even though the shape of success is so visible.
Changing culture is very difficult. Cultures are like organisms. Innovation the "unit of change" occurs at the ecosystem level most often. Most corporate organisms reject the innovative as non of the organisms support systems are designed or motivated to support "the new".
One can argue that devolved or federalist politcal systems were set up for this reason as they are less brittle due to the parts being able to change and innovate.
Fear? Terror? Why. Who needs "the Encyclopedia Britannica company?" In no way am I talking about "the Encyclopedia Britannica company"
I am asking WHO is in what need that they will not let that entity die. Money? What does Economics have to do with Future Needs and who provides these needs. Business IN NO WAY is about Companies. One day the lights of Microsoft will be turned off forever with the flick of a switch. So WHAT!?
Or... Maybe they won't. Will THE MARKET decide? Who is THE MARKET? Is Microsoft THE MARKET? No.
The "Free Market System" is already dead. This in no way is an opinion. That the World Debt reached 100 Trillion Dollars several years ago should have been noticed. No. Let me re phrase that. The World Debt has been noticed so Credit BECAME FREELY GIVEN.
My Point? People see the writing on the wall LONG before they HIT the wall. Figures don't lie. Liars do figure. Banks? Lawyers? Business... Men? Remember... Nothing is Personal say all those trustworthy Predators.
The best part of the Free Market that was going to keep the world safe in an ever growing economy was that Money would select the STRONGEST and those that became WEAK would be EATEN ALIVE for every scrap of VALUE as if there could be no loss. Surly...
Writing started how long ago? Since then how many times has change happened. That any Company fails to have foresights serves them right. Anything that happens is PLANNED FOR. Failure is planned. Not thinking about failure is the planning for failing.
It's like Death. Are you planning on living forever? Most People think that a Business is like a Baby. No. Just those who think the business will not grow and will always remain young are Babies and have no Business in Business.
T.V. already PASSED the very TOP. The Plateau being shown and the future mountain is a Myth. That everyone would like a T.V. inserted in their Left Eye with Holographic Vision and a Light to let others know not to bother is possible. But the Seventy Trillion Dollars to get there? Reality passed the T.V. Builders when 13" T.V.'s needed to be sold for every room in the house to keep things GOING. Growth had already been extinguished from the point where People WITH MONEY would buy another for the Living Room. New T.V.'s could not be made without OLD ONE'S ending up at the DUMP. This was PLANNED TOO.
Computer Hardware Companies are next. NEW? No. The writing was on the wall in 2002 when I heard about what would happen when they became like T.V. sets. Cars? Same thing. What happens when in one year you can design more Models than the market can absorb? The wall of Saturation had been hit in the 1990's. From there a second vehicle was... WELL NECESSARY!!! OFF COURSE. Yes OFF. Any circular diversion before hitting the wall kicks the WALL a little further into the near future.