The Technium

1,000 True Fans

The long tail is famously good news for two classes of people; a few lucky aggregators, such as Amazon and Netflix, and 6 billion consumers. Of those two, I think consumers earn the greater reward from the wealth hidden in infinite niches.

But the long tail is a decidedly mixed blessing for creators. Individual artists, producers, inventors and makers are overlooked in the equation. The long tail does not raise the sales of creators much, but it does add massive competition and endless downward pressure on prices. Unless artists become a large aggregator of other artist's works, the long tail offers no path out of the quiet doldrums of minuscule sales.

Other than aim for a blockbuster hit, what can an artist do to escape the long tail?

One solution is to find 1,000 True Fans. While some artists have discovered this path without calling it that, I think it is worth trying to formalize. The gist of 1,000 True Fans can be stated simply:

A creator, such as an artist, musician, photographer, craftsperson, performer, animator, designer, videomaker, or author - in other words, anyone producing works of art - needs to acquire only 1,000 True Fans to make a living.

A True Fan is defined as someone who will purchase anything and everything you produce. They will drive 200 miles to see you sing. They will buy the super deluxe re-issued hi-res box set of your stuff even though they have the low-res version. They have a Google Alert set for your name. They bookmark the eBay page where your out-of-print editions show up. They come to your openings. They have you sign their copies. They buy the t-shirt, and the mug, and the hat. They can't wait till you issue your next work. They are true fans.

Truefans-1

To raise your sales out of the flatline of the long tail you need to connect with your True Fans directly.  Another way to state this is, you need to convert a thousand Lesser Fans into a thousand True Fans.

Assume conservatively that your True Fans will each spend one day's wages per year in support of what you do. That "one-day-wage" is an average, because of course your truest fans will spend a lot more than that.  Let's peg that per diem each True Fan spends at $100 per year. If you have 1,000 fans that sums up to $100,000 per year, which minus some modest expenses, is a living for most folks.

One thousand is a feasible number. You could count to 1,000. If you added one fan a day, it would take only three years. True Fanship is doable. Pleasing a True Fan is pleasurable, and invigorating. It rewards the artist to remain true, to focus on the unique aspects of their work, the qualities that True Fans appreciate.

The key challenge is that you have to maintain direct contact with your 1,000 True Fans. They are giving you their support directly. Maybe they come to your house concerts, or they are buying your DVDs from your website, or they order your prints from Pictopia. As much as possible you retain the full amount of their support. You also benefit from the direct feedback and love.

The technologies of connection and small-time manufacturing make this circle possible. Blogs and RSS feeds trickle out news, and upcoming appearances or new works. Web sites host galleries of your past work, archives of biographical information, and catalogs of paraphernalia. Diskmakers, Blurb, rapid prototyping shops, Myspace, Facebook, and the entire digital domain all conspire to make duplication and dissemination in small quantities fast, cheap and easy. You don't need a million fans to justify producing something new. A mere one thousand is sufficient.

This small circle of diehard fans, which can provide you with a living, is surrounded by concentric circles of Lesser Fans. These folks will not purchase everything you do, and may not seek out direct contact, but they will buy much of what you produce. The processes you develop to feed your True Fans will also nurture Lesser Fans. As you acquire new True Fans, you can also add many more Lesser Fans. If you keep going, you may indeed end up with millions of fans and reach a hit. I don't know of any creator who is not interested in having a million fans.

But the point of this strategy is to say that you don't need a hit to survive.  You don't need to aim for the short head of best-sellerdom to escape the long tail. There is a place in the middle, that is not very far away from the tail, where you can at least make a living. That mid-way haven is called 1,000 True Fans. It is an alternate destination for an artist to aim for.

Young artists starting out in this digitally mediated world have another path other than stardom, a path made possible by the very technology that creates the long tail. Instead of trying to reach the narrow and unlikely peaks of platinum hits, bestseller blockbusters, and celebrity status, they can aim for direct connection with 1,000 True Fans. It's a much saner destination to hope for. You make a living instead of a fortune. You are surrounded not by fad and fashionable infatuation, but by True Fans. And you are much more likely to actually arrive there.

A few caveats. This formula - one thousand direct True Fans --  is crafted for one person, the solo artist. What happens in a duet, or quartet, or movie crew? Obviously, you'll need more fans. But the additional fans you'll need are in direct geometric proportion to the increase of your creative group. In other words, if you increase your group size by 33%, you need add only 33% more fans. This linear growth is in contrast to the exponential growth by which many things in the digital domain inflate. I would not be surprise to find that the value of your True Fans network follows the standard network effects rule, and increases as the square of the number of Fans. As your True Fans connect with each other, they will more readily increase their average spending on your works. So while increasing the numbers of artists involved in creation increases the number of True Fans needed, the increase does not explode, but rises gently and in proportion.

A more important caution: Not every artist is cut out, or willing, to be a nurturer of fans. Many musicians just want to play music, or photographers just want to shoot, or painters paint, and they temperamentally don't want to deal with fans, especially True Fans. For these creatives, they need a mediator, a manager, a handler, an agent, a galleryist -- someone to manage their fans.  Nonetheless, they can still aim for the same middle destination of 1,000 True Fans. They are just working in a duet.

Third distinction. Direct fans are best. The number of True Fans needed to make a living indirectly inflates fast, but not infinitely. Take blogging as an example. Because fan support for a blogger routes through advertising clicks (except in the occasional tip-jar), more fans are needed for a blogger to make a living. But while this moves the destination towards the left on the long tail curve, it is still far short of blockbuster territory. Same is true in book publishing. When you have corporations involved in taking the majority of the revenue for your work, then it takes many times more True Fans to support you. To the degree an author cultivates direct contact with his/her fans, the smaller the number needed.

Lastly, the actual number may vary depending on the media. Maybe it is 500 True Fans for a painter and 5,000 True Fans for a videomaker. The numbers must surely vary around the world. But in fact the actual number is not critical, because it cannot be determined except by attempting it. Once you are in that mode, the actual number will become evident. That will be the True Fan number that works for you. My formula may be off by an order of magnitude, but even so, its far less than a million.

I've been scouring the literature for any references to the True Fan number. Suck.com co-founder Carl Steadman had theory about microcelebrities. By his count, a microcelebrity was someone famous to 1,500 people. So those fifteen hundred would rave about you. As quoted by Danny O'Brien, "One person in every town in Britain likes your dumb online comic. That's enough to keep you in beers (or T-shirt sales) all year."

Others call this microcelebrity support micro-patronage, or distributed patronage.

In 1999 John Kelsey and Bruce Schneier published a model for this in First Monday, an online journal. They called it the Street Performer Protocol.

Using the logic of a street performer, the author goes directly to the readers before the book is published; perhaps even before the book is written. The author bypasses the publisher and makes a public statement on the order of: "When I get $100,000 in donations, I will release the next novel in this series."

Readers can go to the author's Web site, see how much money has already been donated, and donate money to the cause of getting his novel out. Note that the author doesn't care who pays to get the next chapter out; nor does he care how many people read the book that didn't pay for it. He just cares that his $100,000 pot gets filled. When it does, he publishes the next book. In this case "publish" simply means "make available," not "bind and distribute through bookstores." The book is made available, free of charge, to everyone: those who paid for it and those who did not.

In 2004 author Lawrence Watt-Evans used this model to publish his newest novel. He asked his True Fans to collectively pay $100 per month. When he got $100 he posted the next chapter of the novel. The entire book was published online for his True Fans, and then later in paper for all his fans. He is now writing a second novel this way. He gets by on an estimated 200 True Fans because he also publishes in the traditional manner -- with advances from a publisher supported by thousands of Lesser Fans.  Other authors who use fans to directly support their work are Diane Duane, Sharon Lee and Steve Miller, and Don Sakers. Game designer Greg Stolze employed a similar True Fan model to launch two pre-financed games. Fifty of his True Fans contributed seed money for his development costs.

The genius of the True Fan model is that the fans are able to move an artist away from the edges of the long tail to a degree larger than their numbers indicate. They can do this in three ways: by purchasing more per person, by spending directly so the creator keeps more per sale, and by enabling new models of support.

New models of support include micro-patronage. Another model is pre-financing the startup costs. Digital technology enables this fan support to take many shapes. Fundable is a web-based enterprise which allows anyone to raise a fixed amount of money for a project, while reassuring the backers the project will happen. Fundable withholds the money until the full amount is collected. They return the money if the mininum is not reached.

Fundable

Here's an example from Fundable's site;

Amelia, a twenty-year-old classical soprano singer, pre-sold her first CD before entering a recording studio. "If I get $400 in pre-orders, I will be able to afford the rest [of the studio costs]," she told potential contributors. Fundable's all-or-nothing model ensured that none of her customers would lose money if she fell short of her goal. Amelia sold over $940 in albums.

A thousand dollars won't keep even a starving artist alive long, but with serious attention, a dedicated artist can do better with their True Fans. Jill Sobule, a musician who has nurtured a sizeable following over many years of touring and recording, is doing well relying on her True Fans. Recently she decided to go to her fans to finance the $75,000 professional recording fees she needed for her next album. She has raised close to $50,000 so far. By directly supporting her via their patronage, the fans gain intimacy with their artist. According to the Associated Press:

Contributors can choose a level of pledges ranging from the $10 "unpolished rock," which earns them a free digital download of her disc when it's made, to the $10,000 "weapons-grade plutonium level," where she promises "you get to come and sing on my CD. Don't worry if you can't sing - we can fix that on our end." For a $5,000 contribution, Sobule said she'll perform a concert in the donor's house. The lower levels are more popular, where donors can earn things like an advanced copy of the CD, a mention in the liner notes and a T-shirt identifying them as a "junior executive producer" of the CD.

The usual alternative to making a living based on True Fans is poverty.  A study as recently as 1995 showed that the accepted price of being an artist was large. Sociologist Ruth Towse surveyed artists in Britian and determined that on average they earned below poverty subsistence levels.

I am suggesting there is a home for creatives in between poverty and stardom. Somewhere lower than stratospheric bestsellerdom, but higher than the obscurity of the long tail. I don't know the actual true number, but I think a dedicated artist could cultivate 1,000 True Fans, and by their direct support using new technology, make an honest living.  I'd love to hear from anyone who might have settled on such a path.

[Translations: Hebrew, Italian, Spanish]

Updates:

One artist who partially relies on True Fans responds with a disclosure of his finances: The Reality of Depending on True Fans

I report the results of my survey of artists supported by True Fans: The Case Against 1000 True Fans

Posted on March 4, 2008 at 1:51 PM

Comments

Great article, Kevin. So good, I took the liberty to translate it to Spanish and post it on my website. You can check it out here:

http://revista69.com/1000-fans-verdaderos/

If you want me to delete it, just send me an e-mail and I will do it right away.

Posted by Revista 69 on April 29, 2008 at 4:26 PM

Hey! Great post! I included it in a comment I made on CommunitySpark - I hope you don’t mind.

Posted by Eric Martindale on April 29, 2008 at 9:47 AM

Please cast my vote for “economics don’t add up”. I was following you fine until I got to “$100 profit from each fan”. Even if you have an impressive 50% profit margin on the “items” you sell, be they digital music tracks, t-shirts or mouse pads, that still means you have to come up with at least $200 of new product to sell to these poor 1000 people, every year.

$200 in product?! What will this be?

Suppose I release four CDs a year; that’s a stretch and that’s still only $60-80 a year. Can I tour and catch these 1000 people? Unlikely that I can charge more than $20 so that’s only $20K admissions (and more merch of course) to get me to travel the entire world; more likely I’d play a few large cities and perhaps 400 of my fans would come; that’s still averaging perhaps $10 per true fan.

I’m a huge fan of some bands, I buy everything they come up with, I can confidently say I’ve never spent $200 on any artist in any year.

Even if you could do that, running such a business on $100K seems impossible. Unless you’re some superhuman being, producing a dozen pieces of new product a year while touring requires at least one full-time person helping and a pretty serious outlay for gear.

And you don’t get to take a break here. Your continued existence depends on keeping that pipeline full to those quickly-tiring 1000 fans. Losing one fan is losing a lot of money for you.

Your numbers are wrong. You need 10,000 true fans. At that point the economics are reasonable: you make about $20 profit off each one and it supports three people and some gear purchases.

Posted by Tom Swirly on April 26, 2008 at 9:25 AM

Avante-garde guitarist Buckethead has these ideals down to a science.His fan base mostly hangs out at 3 web forums,and pretty much all he has to do is get the word out on a new album on one of those and he can count on selling at least a few hundred copies within a few days.Last summer he released a 13 disc set of new material called “INSEARCHOFTHE”;each disc was hand-drawn/numbered and he sold many hundreds of sets:to me THAT is the kind of fan dedication that a major label cannot facilitate.Buckethead mainly works out of a small studio owned and run by Travis Dickerson called Travis Dickerson Recording Studio,or TDRS.He has also recorded all of Viggo Mortensen’s albums there.The artists on his site can sell quality cd’s,and they usually arrive within a few days of the posted starting shipping date.When artists like Buckethead make these concrete and GENUINE connections to fans and people who help them get their music out there a higher level of artistic integrity can be achieved as well as a more intimate connection to the fans.What other Guns n’ Roses member(new or old)can you think of who would go so far as to produce hand-made box sets, or release 20+ albums of QUALITY material in a single year?!

Posted by dollar?! on April 24, 2008 at 6:10 AM

Kevin,

Thanks for a great article with lot of food for thought.

I began as a wannabe visual artist several decades back and (in order to make a living) went into the soul-sucking world of commercial art and design as a career when family obligations demanded that I set my sights higher (or lower) than being a starving artistic idealist. The repercussions of that choice spelled death for that part of my life that was involved in visual art. And there was no internet or anything back then to allow it to exist as a sideline enterprise.

Fortunately, I was and am also a musician. The soul-sucking day-to-day grind of my “day job” did not nearly have the impact on that area of life as it did on my visual art. In fact, it has sort of been its salvation of sorts. I feel “cleansed” when I make music. And, as a result I am rather reluctant to even attempt to merge my music making with a commercial world - beyond just the bare minimum of attempts to keep it going and obtain a few opportunities to perform.

I am extremely cautious that it NOT become a “job” in any way. I want to keep it “pure” and only to create what I want to create - without the external considerations of monetary reward. I do create and sell product, I do do some amount of marketing. But, I am really mostly happy that I am not depending on this one last “gift” (my second chance at a creative life) as a means to make a living.

Even so, I can see many useful things in this article that will help me do just that. I don’t even need 1000 True Fans. I am already making a living by other means. I just do want to continue to create and perform the stuff that interests me for as long as possible, and share it with as many people as will listen.

Thank you for writing such a wonderful and useful article. Perhaps some of the concepts in it will help me keep it going for another decade or two.

Best regards,

Ted Killian

Posted by Ted Killian on April 23, 2008 at 1:19 PM

Wow! this particular blog is so popular! It shows how many artists already use the internet. I put a link to this on my blog. I downloaded the book http://www.davidparrish.com/dp/uploads/TShirtsAndSuits.AGuideToTheBusinessOfCreativity and I will watch the 800cds thing if I can find it.

People go on holiday to places where there is art, like London or Venice, to look at art, and hotel prices food travel etc make it an expensive holiday. So virtual art galleries like mine are nice because they save folks money. You only need to use a computer to see my work. Also the carbon footprint for looking at my work must be smaller than visiting a city far away. So how the xxxx do I get people to offer to buy it? All the above contributers avoid that vital question.

Posted by Lesley on April 19, 2008 at 8:00 AM

Good post! Reminds me why people working in niche marketing get so excited about web2.0.

You figure there are about 1,000 people out there interested in your product, which is enough.

In the past, it would have been impossible to reach them without a massive advertising spend on billboards and newspapers - and most of that effort would be spent on brand impressions for people who don’t give a toot about your widget and never will.

Without that budget, you could only reach people locally, with bill posting and ads in the local rag - and locally, there just aren’t people interested in your widget.

So if you got lucky once a year there would be a widget convention to go to, where you can expand your contacts base.

But with social media, websites, blogs etc. it’s suddenly very easy to create content which appeals to your target audience and kind of sniff them out.

You can be in contact with them all the time. With their blogs you can find out what they like, and hit the people who need to know about your widget with targeted marketing material (e.g. RSS feeds from your blog).

It’s like being at a trade show all the time. 1,000 fans is suddenly possible.

Except for me, because my widgets suck. That’s why I concentrate on getting other people some fans.

Posted by Paul on April 18, 2008 at 7:43 AM

The 1000 fans is presented more as the minimum threshold of viability. More would obviously better, but the point was that it’s possible to survive if you can reach 1000 supportive fans. The Internet expands the effective marketplace for any performer far beyond his local area. A performer who can’t find enough local interest might well find enough fans spread around the world to support his work.

As for cost overheads - how much does it cost to manufacture and distribute digital copies of a recorded performance?

Posted by Kort on April 18, 2008 at 12:37 AM

Am I the only one who finds fault in this plan based on the expectation that the artist live AND fund their own work on that annual income? Factor in taxes, insurance, and all the other costs which come with running a startup company, and you’re left with a pep talk that’s short on economic sense.

Does the author know anything about the overhead it can take to produce $100 worth of consumer products? It means multiple releases per year, at the very least. Sorry to be a downer, but this is not realistic.

Posted by words on April 15, 2008 at 9:24 PM

The superficial purpose of compensating artists is so that they can make a living creating the art that is enjoyed by others. A more profound purpose is to encourage the continued production of valued art for the benefit of society as a whole.

A problem with the patronage model is that support of a patron turns the artist into the servant of the patron. The creativity of patron supported artists has traditionally been manipulated and directed by the whims of their patrons. Look at the centuries of religious art produced while the church was the primary patron of artists.

In an ideal world, the free market rewards creators to the extent they produce art that is valued by art consumers. An artist has the freedom to create whatever art they please, while consumers are only obliged to pay fair market value for the art they “consume”.

The current dominance of the major record labels is a legacy of the limitations of the old brick and mortar technology. It took time for physical media to be manufactured, shipped, stocked, and purchased. The original justification for copyright monopolies was to provide time for creative works to reach consumers through the relatively slow production and distribution channels.

The legacy record labels make a lot of noise about digital distribution depriving artists of fair compensation. The problem with this claim is that the legacy recording labels have exploited their control over the traditional brick and mortar distribution of physical media to largely eliminate the compensation of creators for their recordings. Only a tiny percentage of artists benefit financially from recordings of their performances. Most artists are obliged to sign over all rights to their recorded performances to the record label. The primary benefit for most creators of having a recording in retail store is the promotional value for selling tickets to live performances.

One of the primary functions of free markets is to create alternatives to inefficient industries. The inherent costs and constraints of the traditional recording industry have created strong incentives for the market to find better alternatives. The legacy recording industry is attempting to frustrate the natural functions of a free market in order to preserve its ability to abuse that market.

One of the problems that the Internet is quite capable of solving is the compensation of creators. A modified dutch auction provides both a way for “1000 fans” to support their favored artists, and a free market means of setting fair market values on creative works.

In essence, a creator offers (some) rights to a recording for auction, setting a minimum yield/total earnings that he will accept. Consumers bid what they would be willing to pay for an advance limited edition enhanced value copy of the work. A yield calculation determines the price point that will return the best total yield to the creator (gross revenue vs number of copies). A successful auction in effect collectively purchases limited rights to copy and distribute the recording, for the public domain.

Each successful bidder receives an enhanced value copy at the price point before the recording becomes available to anyone else - they have a short period of time to recover their bid investment by reselling copies of their copy. The creator gets compensated up-front, their some rights to their recording become public domain, and those who facilitated the transfer are able to recover their costs from secondary consumers. Since rights to copy and distribute the recording have been transferred to the public domain by the auction, music piracy is transformed into a highly effective distribution and publicity system.

The current system provides little more than publicity for the vast majority of creators. A rights auction provides creators with greater direct earnings from their recordings, allows them to retain greater persistent rights to their work, and enables a far more effective means of publicity, than the legacy record labels.

Posted by Kort on April 13, 2008 at 12:59 AM

Very insightful article. I am an indie artist and have notched up some 45k in plays on Myspace, some good reviews, and still have not raised enough cash to release something I’d be happy with. I realized that the myspace page was serving as a platform for filtering ‘real’ fans after I noted the main site had 7k in visitors from some 20k visitors to myspace - so, there are some real fans there amongst the mud. I have sold 180 hand made eps, and my main site has 420 subscribers and I receive regular letters. Although I don’t feel comfortable with a ‘finan

Posted by Lindsay on April 5, 2008 at 2:29 PM

Kevin. You put a lot of thought into this. Thanks for the clarity. This makes being a creator in the digital age a possibility, rather than a problem. I can proceed with confidence, without feeling “overwhelmed.” Thank you.

Posted by Nathanael Matthias Weiss on April 4, 2008 at 3:08 PM

I suppose it’s every artist’s dream to find those sponsors. Mine too of course. I am just starting out; it’s a hobby for me. I’ll let you know how i get on.

Posted by Lesley on March 31, 2008 at 5:35 AM

Ever since I read this post, and even made my first comment, I couldn’t stop thinking about it. This is a fantastic idea, but it occurs to me that this idea has particular challenges when it comes to musicians. Primarily among them, to make enough product to sell every year. But also that most musicians are in bands, rather than singular, which makes the numbers difficult to reach.

But there’s still another issue: Most pro musicians have a significant income from music licensing and similar money sources. So, my question is: do you focus on getting your fans to buy more, or do you focus on getting more fans? The latter makes it more likely to follow in Jonathan Coulton’s footsteps, who managed to license a song to G4 for their show “Code Monkeys.”

There’s more in a blog entry here:

http://blog.indiebandsurvivalguide.com/?p=10

Posted by Randy Chertkow on March 29, 2008 at 1:27 PM

I view with wonder both the adulation and controversy created by your article. Its title, 1000 True Fans, is only a metaphorical benchmark, yet it is precisely because it is a powerful and easy to grasp symbol that most of those giving the article either a “thumbs up” or “thumb down” fail to get the basic premise, which is reflected in your simple and true statement: ”Direct fans are best.” The key word to tag here is, direct.

Those taking the “contra-Kelly” position are quick to point out that $100,000 per year would be a dream come true for most struggling artists with day-jobs who are on the verge of giving up their dreams of making any money at all. However, most critics overlook the important point that you use the “formalized” term, 1000 True Fans, to represent a process or “path” rather than a specific result.

Even within the long tail environment fostered by new technologies, there are practical opportunities for artists to make a living by focusing on “the heads within the tails” rather than the stardom of the “heads within the heads.” As you note, this is accomplished by using the power of “the very technology that creates the long tail” to establish direct rather then indirect connections.

For those interested, we elaborate on these points at the Nightschool For Entrepreneurs column at The Fix at Fuzz: http://www.fuzz.com/articles/article/Nightschool-49

Posted by thecapitalclinic on March 28, 2008 at 4:16 AM

I started to play music in 1969. In those days you could only enter a recording studio when you had a contract. And those were almost impossible to get, especially in Germany, where I live. The music I play ( instrumental guitar with feel, melody and vocal like expression ) was never something for the companies. They wanted the hits. With the upcoming of home recording, for the first time I was able to make the music audible that I was carrying inside. My first self produced debut Western Skies was released 1989. Of course we had no chance to get a wider audience, although there was some airplay and brilliant reviews in the magazines. Since then we have released 10 albums, and it is only now that we get fans all over the world, from asia to scandinavia. It’s still not the big figures, and we do some studio work and also have produced 700+ tracks of library music to make a living. But today I know it is possible to get in contact with our future fans, and they can be much more than 1000, as instrumental music is beyond anylanguage. I’m very thankful for articles like this, as they encourage me to go on. Even if at times, the next step is not clear or there is a block somewhere.

Peter Blue Blue Star

Posted by Peter Blue on March 27, 2008 at 1:50 PM

Annie Hardy of Giant Drag is doing something quite similar to Jill Sobule right now. She’s soliciting her True Fans to help finance her album seeing as how she owes her old record label $70,000. I think it’s a great idea!

Posted by Audrey on March 26, 2008 at 2:06 PM

This is a fascinating combination of post and comments. I am a visual artist-craftsman working is a very old-fashioned and specialised field. I live by commissions. I have always thought that I can sustain myself as an artist if just 100 people worldwide occasionally commissioned a bookplate (ex libris)from me. Time will tell.

Posted by Andy English on March 25, 2008 at 4:03 AM

This is right on. Speaking as a musician, I don’t want stardom, I just to make a living so I can make more music.

Most bands dream of getting signed, as an end in itself, not realizing that label money is an extremely expensive loan. They will be dropped as soon as their sales start to decline. Better to be small, to grow slowly and to have as few middlemen as possible. Micro-patronage.

Plus, given the way music is currently marketed, for those in the genre gaps, directly connecting with core fans is the only way to make a living anyway. Thanks for the blog.

Posted by Zoe Keating on March 24, 2008 at 11:33 PM

Great post. (thanks Seth Godin) This has obviously worked for bands like the Dead and Phish, who didn’t worry about mass marketing and didn’t worry about people ripping off their stuff, but instead worked on making sure that the people who did and would like their stuff got a chance to enjoy it and pay for it. Very possibly every guitar lick Jerry Garcia played live (both the good ones and the horrible ones) are available somewhere for free, but all that did was encourage fans to go out and participate in the live shows, which is where most bands make their money anyway.

Posted by Mike Keller on March 24, 2008 at 10:03 AM

Kevin, thanks for verbalizing what I was trying to tell my business partner for some months now. Since true fans are now hidden somewhere in between the massive amount of free downloaders of music that are scattered around the Internet world.

We are now offering musicians in rap hip hop and reggae an opportunity to use free beats http://rap.jairdynast.com to remix our rapper for a chance to win a grand prize plus get featured, promoted and distributed internationally at absolutely no cost to them. We want to reach “truly talented and skills artists” and give them an opportunity to gain valuable exposure free. We know first hand that artists struggle with day jobs in order to perfect their craft and continually feed the habit of music.

Your article is definitely thought-provoking and subscribes to “out-of-the-box” thinking. This requires a second read and is achievable at any level and can have many applications. It allows someone to target, start small and build a network of true fans.

Kevin, thanks for keeping my creative juices flowing on what was a pretty slow day…lol

Posted by Beau Trickey on March 24, 2008 at 9:05 AM

this is really inspiring. I have a deal with a Global New Age Record company and I love it! But CD sales are down everywhere, so now more than ever its down to the artist to get out there…And the ineternet is THE TOOL..My space has been very good for me to get interest and alot of love of my music…but turning that interest into 1000 true fans, well I could do with help on that!

Posted by kavi on March 22, 2008 at 6:45 AM

Well, obviously if you’re going to follow this strategy, you should aim for True Fans with a lot of money. One rich True Fan is worth infinitely many True Fans who have no money to give you patronage. Generally the noun “patron” is modified by the adjective “wealthy”. So appeal to the rich. Make your art a luxury good.

Also, this strategy is more likely to succeed for certain types of art than for others. Hard to imagine it working well for something like music, since the appreciation of music is almost inherently social. If you’re out with your friends, you want to listen to the same thing. Even more true if you’re at a party. Going to concerts is a social thing. Furthermore, music has strong ethnic and subcultural affiliations. It’s an important ingroup/outgroup marker - the people who listen to rap aren’t the same as the people who listen to country. So, what music you listen to depends on what other people are listening to. This creates a sort of positive feedback effect that makes big bands bigger and small bands smaller. Thus, bands usually wind up hitting it fairly big (at least regionally or within a certain subculture) or staying pretty small (maybe they play gigs covering popular music at local bars, but nobody buys their CDs or cares much for their original stuff).

So, if I were a musician, I certainly wouldn’t count on having any success with this True Fan idea. For authors, though, the same reason why the idea fails miserably for music make it more practical for literature. Reading is almost inherently anti-social - you have to do it alone. True, people do like to read the same things as other people, so that they can talk about what they read, or also to look smart or cool by reading certain books, but the effect is not nearly as strong as it is for music. So for writers, having a small base of isolated fans is a tenable strategy.

Posted by Sam on March 20, 2008 at 9:50 PM

I accidentally cultivated 15,000 True Fans by filling a need in an underserved niche online while following my heart…Ummm, so like I put up a little website about my family living on a raw-vegan diet of fruits, vegetables, nuts and seeds - unheated - oh, yeah, everyone knows about this now right? Well, anyway, it was one of the first raw sites about 10 years ago and after reading an article about Seth Godin’s Permission Marketing in YIL (remember them?) - I put up a newsletter. For many years I slaved away maintaining my list through entourage groups - I should have my head examined, I know! But now all’s well with dadamail and life is good!

So, I understand how to do this in an underserved niche I think - But how do you stand out as a musician - my next test…..Maybe out of those 15,000 I can find 1,000 True Fans!

Thanks for putting this concept into concrete form! The Internet saves starving artists and keeps them off the street at the same time! Cuz y’know it takes a lot of work but yes it is so gratifying to actually communicate with your fans, read their emails, soak up that love! :)

Posted by Jinjee on March 19, 2008 at 8:49 PM

My experience so far is this: I have been an independent musician for years. Traditional cd sales have been small but widespread thanks to places like cdbaby. Recently I decided to release my newest cd as a free download on my site. Within 2 weeks it had been downloaded more times than sales of my 3 cds on cdbaby combined. Yet no one had clicked my paypal donation link. So what is better? Having more copies (exposure) out there or having some form of (small) income? Right now I fall on the exposure side, I’m also giving away a lot of my sheet music. But I worry that giving things away in hope of attracting fans will diminish the likelihood that they will become “True Fans” and pay for things down the road.

Posted by Sean on March 19, 2008 at 12:44 PM

Wow. Kevin, this is just golden.

You’ve been able to put everything we’ve all been observing, thinking and talking about into clearer words than I’ve been able to find.

I rave about this article on my music marketing blog at maxlowe.net. This will be the new model of sustainable arts and culture.

Posted by Max Lowe on March 19, 2008 at 12:04 PM

The 1000 True Fans concept is a simple and amazing one. I already mentioned it at the SXSW (South By SouthWest) panel I participated on; Knowing your Audience. At IndieGoGo.com we are empowering artists to engage their fans. From fundraising to connecting with their 1000 True Fans, IndieGoGo was built with the independent artisit in mind so they can DIWO (Do It With Others). You mentioned Fundable.com, but now with IndieGoGo, the artist can share their creative vision in own place and turn the 1000 True Fans passion in action.

Thanks again for the great article and I look forward to spreading the word.

Posted by Slava Rubin on March 15, 2008 at 9:31 PM

Kevin, I will never think of it the same way again. Thanks! You (or listmates) might be interested in Steven Van Yoder’s book, Slightly Famous at www.getslightlyfamous.com. It helps you figure HOW to get 1,000 True Fans. It’s aimed at businesses and self-employment in general rather than just creative endeavors.

Judith,who’s slightly famous at homeschool conferences

Judith Waite Allee Co-author “Homeschooling on a Shoestring” and “Educational Travel on a Shoestring”

Posted by Judith on March 14, 2008 at 6:22 PM

A glowing chorus of blog approval, the like of which 2.0 business modellers will no doubt strive to grow and revel in following this fine vanguard thinking.
The figure of 1,000 True Fans represents a grand (hehe) headline. It�s simple and judging by the comments, overwhelmingly inspirational in its achievability. Yet may I be drawn to illuminate an alternative figure. It’s just that the arbitrary nature of the mille-mark troubles me as a one-size-fits-all stamp.

I empathise with the problems of art and commerce as notoriously irritable cohabiters, being someone with a foot in both camps. Can debate be encouraged further around a pair of evolutions?

‘building block plans’ — Namely, adapting what the ‘one-to-one’ and ‘relationship’ marketing crowd have banged on about for years, whereby to succeed with such believers, you need a multi-layered plan to contact different levels of engagement with different ‘content’ — this is indeed more hard work, yet the rewards not only promote Lesser- to True-Fans, but also introduce that wonderful economic concept of ‘scarcity’ to your top-line offering.

‘bill payers’ — It’s clear that for different people, different numbers of True Fans are required in order to pay the bills. You could take a leaf here out of the lectern-army of entrepreneurial business consultants. Such self-styled luminaries as marketing experts and sales trainers that set out on their own often determine their daily rate by a simple formula: Gross Salary Target / 100 = Daily Consultancy Rate The reason for division by 100, is supposedly that these types of consultants tend to end up being able to bill for 100 out of the available 240 working days a year. So, taking this idea on a level, you can isolate your own tailored ‘1,000’ figure based on some kind of financial target. To make it even more incentivising, this target should be based on profit. Target Profit / average profit per item / average purchases per Fan = Number of True Fans required Being English, I’ll work in Pounds Sterling for an example and use as my target the alleged ‘mean’ wage here. I know of all I sell, I tend to make, say, a tenner margin per item (whether book, gig ticket, mp4, whatever). I also suspect that my True Fans would or do buy twice from me during a year. In this case, I need 1.5 thousand such followers to plough my own successful furrow: £30,000 / £10 / 2 = 1,500 True Fans required

How much value do these points add for you, I wonder?

Posted by harrison (from harrisongalaxy) on March 14, 2008 at 8:52 AM

Hi Kevin and everyone,

I got inspired by the discussion of the 1000 True Fans idea and I noticed a few people asking about hiring people to help you do the work of reaching out to the fans, particularly if you’re more introverted and want to concentrate on your creative work.

I’m taking an Entrepreneurship class in university right now and our main project is to come up with a proposal and a plan for a business idea. My idea is a 1000-True-Fans inspired artist management and development service, which operates on a smaller scale and helps creators get the side admin tasks and connect to their fans better while having more time to create.

I would like to invite all of you to take my survey here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/viewform?key=pEQ56W2Qsqh-TMjXxRub8JA&email=true

No identifying information is collected. If you’d like a copy of the results, let me know.

Thank you!

Posted by Tiara on March 13, 2008 at 11:03 PM

This is the sort of marketing strategy that could use Propagate Ltd most effectively. By listing a work there and then directing “true fans” to bid on it, an artist could get his/her pay day and then sit back to watch true fans distribute the work to new fans world wide (when digital works are released via Propagate Ltd, duplication and redistribution rights are released to the public domain). Not only would the artist make a living, but the artist’s work would be spread to a larger audience, and true-fans would be rewarded for doing so.

Posted by Resolving Digital Piracy on March 13, 2008 at 2:41 PM

Interesting article. I agree to a certain extent. I used to run a fan club for David Cassidy and to this day, it’s the “avid fans” that have kept him going in-between being in very well done projects.

However, he has a very split fan base of “Partridge Family” and “Post Partridge Family” fans. Sometimes he’s catered too much to the PF fans by doing songs he said he’d never sing again, etc. Even though, it’s the projects that have had nothing to do with the PF that have done the best. Finding a “balance” between nurturing your fans when you’ve become famous for something that’s not really you is a very difficult position to be in though. So I try not to be overly critical about any of the choices he’s made in his career. He’s still a great talent and because he has been so nice to me and many of the die-hard fans, I’ll always support him.

It’s also true that many devoted fans will bring along family & friends and encourage others to listen to their favorite artist.

However, there are also some very “devoted” fans who become very “obsessive” over artist. They will become so “over-protective” and pounce on anyone who has any critical comments about the artist or their works and that will actually drive away some of the more “casual fans.” I’ve also seen a few fans who have become very competative towards other fans as they want the artist for just themselves and/or their small group of friends. Sometimes it becomes like a “clique” in Jr. High or H.S. This is when these type of fans will actually be hurting the artists career.

So I feel it’s important that the artist makes it clear that they appreciate ALL their fans and that they appreciate both positive feedback and “Critical Critiques.” Not every fan can afford the money and/or time to fly all over the place to see a performer. However they should feel just as welcome at a local performance and/or M&G, otherwise they may be “put off” if they are made to feel less important just because they’re not rich, may have kids and a job - and a “real life” outside of enjoying a particular artists works. Otherwise, you’ll see the number of “devoted fans” becoming less & less.

Still, I do agree that the artists should nurture those who do go to the extra effort to support them. It only makes sense.

Thanks for this very intersting & informative article.

Posted by Cat on March 12, 2008 at 8:43 AM

Hi Mr. Kelly,

Great post. The simplicity of this concept struck me when you talked about this, when we where at your place. Never acted on it though, it is about time I do something with it.

Thanks again for diner. A white suit guy.

Posted by Arjen Schat on March 12, 2008 at 8:03 AM

It might be good to stress the preferred consumption method of particular media types in your formula.

Music is totally virtual now. No need for a physical media distribution network. Movies are quickly moving in the same route.

However, the example with books is far too premature. The preferred consumption method is still ink-on-paper and that means that your costs to produce are going to much higher and the individual artist’s take will be less than 10% of gross receipts (probably far less than that).

Maybe this will change in the future but it’s not quite there yet.

Posted by Jamie on March 12, 2008 at 5:53 AM

Kevin,

Very interesting article.

I agree wholeheartedly with Keith Burtis, the web makes it possible to find those 1000 people who can support you doing what you do rather than what you need to do to survive. The necessity of living in a large city like Paris, London or New York; for a long time the only way to make your way as an artist, is no longer so important. I live in the middle of nowhere in a small ruined hamlet in Provence, I have one neighbor, (a sculptor) and a DSL line. I have managed to make a living now for ten years by selling my paintings and as the internet and blogosphere grew (I set up my first website in 1998) I gradually increased my ‘fan base’. In 2006 I was fortunate to have the NYTimes published a small article on my 19th century meets 21st century life and I was given an energetic push over that 1000 base. I send out a new painting to three thousand people almost everyday of the week, I can experiment and always some people will come with me. As I mature(?) as a painter and my work changes I am confident that enough ‘fans’ will come with me to enable me to continue for the rest of my life (touch wood).

Posted by Julian Merrow-Smith on March 12, 2008 at 3:16 AM

Kevin, this post should be called “THE TAO OF LONG TAIL.”

What you’ve articulated here is a classic middle way. You must have some Buddhist DNA!

It’s always amazed me that most of what you read about musicians seems to be focused on the exceptional success stories at the head of the power law curve, while those who inhabit “the flatline” as you call it, are left with their day jobs.

I’ve produced, published and advised independent musicians for 30 years, and the ones who are successful at making a living on their music have two things in common: they are realistic about where they exist in the music food chain, and they create and sustain themselves on multiple small revenue streams. These other revenue streams should be considered to round out the picture you paint above of direct support by users.

They include: teaching, performing on other artists live gigs and recording projects; producing and/or engineering other artists recording projects; selling studio time to other artists; scoring small films, multimedia and commercials; building instruments; writing for music periodicals, blogs and web sites; and for a few, product endorsements.

Then there is the whole category of “licensing income” which is only going to get bigger in the digital era: music publishing royalties from their composition copyrights (ASCAP/BMI/etc), residual payments for licensed use of their recorded music in films, television, and advertisments.

This is not an exhaustive list — there are many ways to operate if you want to make a living at music. For a more complete treatment of these ideas, please see my long interview with independent musician Jamie Bonk.

:: SH

Posted by Stephen Hill on March 11, 2008 at 7:33 PM

Some of these comments from readers are asking how to go about getting those 1,000 true fans. It may not be as hard as you think. Watch a movie called “800 Cd’s”, google it. You’ll see. It works like magic, I’ve seen these people do it. It teaches you how to reach fans fast, in-person, and how to create quality relationships with them. You’ll see, as the artists try it, it changes things for them dramatically. Make sure to take good notes. Email me and let me know if it’s working for you, loribell@xmission.com

Posted by Loribella on March 11, 2008 at 3:06 PM

As a visual artist, I find this to be a very interesting and empowering concept. This true-fan ‘business model’ reminds me a lot of the independent rap artist from the Bay Area: Too Short, E-40, etc began their careers by “selling records outta the trunk”, bypassing major record labels and getting supported financially by local ‘true fans’.

I forwarded your article to all my artist friends. Thanks!

Posted by Jor on March 11, 2008 at 2:46 PM

simple, but possible… ;) but i don’t think this plan inspire the artits, perhaps in 10 years, when the web 2.0 will get more popular.

Posted by michael on March 11, 2008 at 12:35 PM

Great idea. 1,000 fans is a great number. I’m not exactly sure how many we have. Maybe I should make a list.

Posted by JunaD on March 11, 2008 at 8:52 AM

great post. i’ve been struggling on how to continue to cultivate a small but growing number of true fans. it’s easy to overlook this very important group in pursuit of a super large crowd. i’m going to scale back, stay focused and continue to nurture this group.

Posted by Steve on March 11, 2008 at 8:28 AM

I found this article through Damien Mulley’s blog at http://www.mulley.net/2008/03/11/stations-of-the-cross-true-fans-and-micro-training-classes.

It’s a great read and an interesting proposition. I’ve seen it in action. Where the profit comes in I’m not sure, but the passion is there.

Well done. I too will be reading this again.

Darragh

Posted by Darragh on March 11, 2008 at 7:18 AM

this has been my philosophy on being a living artist for a very long time, I am finally building it. I will get there, hell who needs 1,000 I would feel like fucking bill gates making 100k a year, I could go for 500 true fans! Great article, thanks!

Baxter www.baxterorr.com

Posted by Baxter Orr on March 10, 2008 at 11:14 PM

Does an artist “sell-out” when they start to make money?

In this age of “file sharing” how do we pay the artist to survive another day and make more music?

In 1969 the great Ginger Baker, drummer of Cream parted ways with Eric Clapton and stated that Eric sold-out and became commercialized…in todyas file sharing age would we have an “Eric Clapton”? Would we hear more from Ginger Baker?

How will we pay to keep the music going? There are costs to the musician to make the music. Whom will bear those costs?

Posted by Cam Caldwell on March 10, 2008 at 8:42 PM

Isn’t it time that ‘true artistes’ connect with ‘true fans’. This I truly owe to the web because it became the vehicle for me to reach out to people whom I felt had no inkling that their work left a lasting imprint on me, be that books and most especially, music (as we’ve all been through that ‘finding a role-model’ stage). And in most cases, they are what we can term as ‘obscure’ and that no one seems to remember them.

For true artistes, 1 fan is value enough but I guess, 1,000 gets them over the hump to let them be true to themselves and continue being uniquely special in their own way.

Oh yes, count me in as a fan, kev!

Posted by friarminor on March 10, 2008 at 8:25 PM

@doubt: You say “Even a top 10 STAR with Millions of PR dollars spent on them each year dosent GARNER 100.00 a year from a typical fan.”

That is right. A typical fan, even of big stars, does not spend $100 per year on their fav. But True Fans do. Even Lucas and Speilberg have True Fans who buy every action figure, mug, and poster edition that comes out. They easily spend 100 bucks. The stars don’t have many True Fans, maybe no more than 1,000, but they do have millions of typical fans. I suggest not focusing on the typical fan and go after the True Fan.

Posted by Kevin Kelly on March 10, 2008 at 12:48 PM

Yes, Nerdkore, feeding fans is like feeding an animal. Constant care.

Posted by Kevin Kelly on March 10, 2008 at 12:26 PM

As always, content is king. One must not forget that getting 1000 people to like your stuff will take a lot of work (most likely many years) to build up. The main hurdle to overcome is consistency. Your fans must be constantly fed. Leave them without anything new and they vanish forever. It takes a LOT of work but is completely possible.

Posted by NerdkoreDotCom on March 10, 2008 at 7:24 AM

Thanks for the very inspiring post. I’m a kinetic sculptor, animator and fan of Seth Godin, found this from his blog. I’m printing out most of this and nailing to the studio wall. I’m somewhere > 300 and < 400 (true fans) I suspect and have been at this for 15+ years, long tail indeed!

Posted by Gina Kamentsky on March 9, 2008 at 6:28 PM

Alright KK. I’ll sign up as one of your “founding 1000” :-)

Posted by William on March 9, 2008 at 8:33 AM

I really enjoyed reading this article. Very interesting theories. To everyone’s success!

Posted by alex on March 9, 2008 at 6:25 AM

This is good analysis for sure. I am going to summarize on my website, which is focused on providing indie musicians advice on how to manage their music in the digital age. This definitely furthers some of the thought out there regarding J. Coulton and others. Great article.

Matt

www.VolumeEleven.net

Posted by V11 on March 8, 2008 at 9:02 PM

Great article Kevin. I mentioned it as my DIY Filmmaker blog: http://diyfilmmaker.blogspot.com/2008/03/100-true-fans.html

  • Sujewa
Posted by Sujewa on March 8, 2008 at 8:38 PM

I can completely see how this relates to my business! I had been thinking for a long time that although we still need to expand, we don’t want to get too far away from our core, which is based on being a smaller business. Reading this, I can see that we need to grow but not set our sights on being the biggest of companies. We can focus on the people that we do have and turn some of our lesser fans into true fans.

Posted by Tricia Meyer on March 8, 2008 at 7:57 PM

This article deserves note for anyone who aspires to be fully indendent and thrive on their creativity monetarily.

Personally, the idea of 1,000 true fans is probably close to where i am ethically… there are a few spots i’ve created online that allow people to donate as ‘patrons’ of my music, and included close to those tip jars are mentions of real payback or reward for their gratitude — usually in the form of mailed things or links to hidden albums i’ve got online.

The one thing this article doesn’t really expand upon is the amount of energy or time it can take to build that momentum and maintain it. As much as i love receiving fan letters, having my music propagate through the p2p and blogosphere and everything else it can get close to smothering; especially when the people gush and gush and included in this gush is suggestions of where to go next [because they’d totally buy something that sounded more blank with less blank blank]. Maybe i’m weak in that aspect, but i’m still hunting for a proper manager to filter some of the feedback and coordinate the appearance mechanisms a little more completely than i’ve been able to so far.

Posted by c.todd [phylum sinter] on March 8, 2008 at 7:23 PM

You have reached viral stage on this post, I think I’ve seen it mentioned in posts and twitts and such now more than any other post of the last week. Congratulations at least on that! You’ve struck a chord.

As for 1,000 true fans, I have to agree with a few of the commenters who suggest they would like to reach the magic 1,000 RSS subscribers so they know that each time they post they are opening possible communication with 1,000 daily readers.

Posted by Daltonsbriefs on March 8, 2008 at 3:27 PM

We’ve been doing exactly what Jill Sobule is doing now since 1992, for the last six albums, though on a smaller scale - we don’t need to pay Don Was $50,000 (I’m guessing, but I bet I’m not far off) to do the producing.

I’m guessing we’ve got 300 true fans - but we’re an eight peice band. Basically the music breaks even and I pay the band when we play. I get to produce a body of work and my wife makes the money that supports us. Without her, I’d still be back at album number 1 or doing something else that actually pays.

1000 true fans is a nice way to frame the goal. These days anything that makes this business more doable is a gift.

Posted by Chriostopher Bingham on March 8, 2008 at 11:11 AM

Kevin

A brilliant article. I’m going to publicise it widely.

Your advice to creative individuals is intelligent and appropriate. It fits in with my own experience and my own advice to the creative people I help in a professional capacity.

There is a free eBook for creative people who want to know more about cool business ideas, called ‘T-Shirts and Suits: A Guide to the Business of Creativity’. It’s online here: http://www.davidparrish.com/dp/uploads/TShirtsAndSuitsAGuideToTheBusinessOfCreativityDavidParrish.pdf

It’s free! And it’s a Cool Tool !

Keep up the good work…

David http://www.davidparrish.com

Posted by David Parrish on March 8, 2008 at 7:54 AM

the main question seems to be: “so how do i find my 1000 fans?”

patience, grasshopper.

hopefully sooner rather than later, collaborative filtering will arrive to your rescue, finding your fans for you.

forget marketing. it will be seen as a kiss of death, a mark of a weak product.

go concentrate on your art.

-bowerbird

Posted by bowerbird on March 8, 2008 at 1:20 AM

I think this is based on the classic concept of customer servicing only the platform and mode has changed.. basically it works on the concept of C.A.R.I.N.G - that illustrates showing consitency, attentiveness, reliability, individualized,noteworthy and generous services towards customers so as you can maintain the long lasting relationship with them. I could get some fans if not all through this for my business. thanks

Posted by Navtej Kohli on March 7, 2008 at 5:43 PM

Writer Jack Vance has True Fans. How do we know? Well, they got together, and with the author’s help, they re-edited and re-published his collective works. It only came to about 60 hardcover volumes. Check out:

http://www.vanceintegral.com/

Posted by Don Lindsay on March 7, 2008 at 5:09 PM

I think one “really” needs to examine that 100.00 number to find the reality of this thesis.

Even a top 10 STAR with Millions of PR dollars spent on them each year dosent GARNER 100.00 a year from a typical fan.

Lets take Speilberg, Ford, Cruise, and a Lucas etc. etc. and lets use their MOVIE release schedule … Even if they did release 10 movies a year, at 10.00 a ticket for a total of 100.00 per “fan” What consumer is it that can spend that 100.00 dollars an all 4 of these “stars of IP content”?

OK, lucas has hasbro toy licenses and so does Speilberg, but both didnt come from any long tail, only an all boys old media type network:)

How about Ford, or Cruise- tell me how many 100.00 action figures need to be sold for them to work outside of someone PAYING them to “act”.

You suppose we’re now expected to find another 100.00 a year to support how many “B C D” level list creators?

hmm

Again somthing smelly in this new free meme.

Only those made famous on the old media seem to believe it. Nine inch Who without Mtv and millions spent in the 1990s by an “industry”

Cottage industry and craft industry was a fine model for a world not “able to calculate” every lost cent, and every possible buyer” as in the last 50 years of the “old machine”

Nothing is ever free, everything has a cost or a effect. even Anderson had to admit it on Charlie Rose last night after 5 bumps….lol.

The Only thing I agreed with that he said is that GOOGLE is handing over Humanity to the machine….

It would be funny if we didnt already know that garbage in always produces garbage out.

no cost? we shall see….

doubting tomas

Posted by doubt on March 7, 2008 at 5:04 PM

AmAZing post! Now I have to figure out how to apply the thousand-fan idea to my blog, http://dave-lucas.blogspot.com to build my blog into a monster. Is it even possible? One could blog for two or three years only to have a CORE of maybe 25 to 50 regular readers. How to increase that to THOUSANDS? Some lucky bloggers have been able to accomplish that: Blogs like Xu Jinglei, TechCrunch, Gizmodo, Michelle Malkin. But how do YOU or I accomplish that? Read. Network via MyBlogLog, MySpace, Facebook. Comment on other blogs. You have to make the effort, whether you spend a rainy evening on the PC or a day when you’re home sick with the flu… With a little luck, some talent and persistence, you may slowly but surely build up your own personal legion of fans… or not.

Posted by DaveLucas on March 7, 2008 at 1:17 PM

I always tell myself and other musician clients and fans, “You don’t want transitory, massive Digg-like traffic hits on your stupid shit. You want to cleverly poise and promote your stupid shit to key fans who understand your message and aesthetics. Loyal intelligent fans who have good connections or lots of smart energy.”

You seek the music aficiandos and elite change agents, plus regular fans with COLLECTOR MENTALITY who will seek out every fart you emit, and pay any price for it.

But give most of your stupid shit away for free, to generate buzz and addictive behavior modules.

STR8 SOUNDS Therabusive Noise Carnival

Posted by vaspers aka STR8 SOUNDS on the edge of everywhere on March 7, 2008 at 10:45 AM

Excellent post.

Agree completly that the trick with the long tail, is to focus on relationships with your fans and building them organically.

While with long tail an artist likelihood of being a super star is still as low as its always been, the chances of making a living have vastly increased. Its a lot easy to produce, record, and distribute your music right now then at any point before. The trouble is finding out how to make it work.

Dan http://www.VolumeEleven.net

Posted by Dan on March 7, 2008 at 10:22 AM

Thank you for this thought-provoking article. It managed to turn what looks like a nearly impossible situation into an achievable goal. As a musician, I keep trying to wrap my head around the concept of trying to sell something that, honestly, I’d rather that my people traded freely in order to get more fans.

One of the earlier posts asked how to get those fans in the first place, which is an excellent question. That got me thinking, what about blending this idea with Fred Wilson’s “freemuim” concept discussed in Chris Anderson’s recent “Free” article? I don’t want to write a long entry here in this comments section, so I wrote about it in my own blog here http://www.indiebandsurvivalguide.com/blog/

Very thought provoking article!

Posted by Randy Chertkow on March 7, 2008 at 9:48 AM

Great thought. The Guerrilla Marketing has argued this: cut the middlemen — screw Amazon and the other Big Guys — and go directly to people. If you can provide something for a global audience, then that 1,000 becomes a very small percentage.

I think that there is still a place for joining together, trying to get your 100.000 lesser fans to be one of mine, and vice versa.

Posted by manasclerk on March 7, 2008 at 8:53 AM

Great article Kevin and bang in line with our philosophy here at Slicethepie.

We are an intermediary between artists and fans that enables any artist who can pre-sell copies of their album to raise $30,000 to go and record and release it. The artist keeps 100% of their publishing/copyright and the fans get the album plus a share of the sales proceeds.

The model ensures that the artist makes money from the first copy of the album sold and the fans begin to profit if over 1,000 copies of the album are sold.

14 artists have raised the money in the past 7 months and the first album financed this way (by The Alps) is released on 10 March.

We use Tunecore (above) for digital distribution - and they are great!

Posted by David Courtier-Dutton on March 7, 2008 at 7:15 AM

Kevin,

What an inspiring piece. I really enjoyed Anderson’s Long Tail and you seem to have captured a tangible way forward for artists, be they musicians, photographers, writers or whatever. It’s a great concept, “1,000 True Fans”.

thanks very much

Andrew

Posted by Andrew Munro on March 7, 2008 at 6:51 AM

To Kevin and others,

The issue of how to help creators in the long-tail market and monetize their work is exactly what we set out to address with Buzzfuse.com - a marketing service for blogs, music, photos, and flash.

Buzzfuse was created by myself (a cartoonist & photographer) and other creatives because we needed something powerful to help us both market and monetize our work, wherever it was hosted. I’m very pleased to say that nearly 2 years later, our system is in beta but it works well - we are driving traffic at a fraction of the cost that Google Adwords can, and we are paying real money (either through our rewards program or on a pay per download basis) to our premium subscribers.

The fan model is key to us. We try to make it really easy for a creator to ‘collect’ fans. These fans in turn get immediate notifications of anything the creator produces, and also get discounts on any premium items released. So far, the system works well and feedback suggests we’re onto the right approach.

We’d appreciate anyone to go out there and test buzzfuse.com - feel free to email me garethochse at gmail dot com with your feedback or simply invite me into your circle on Buzzfuse. It works (but we’re young and learning so please feel free to suggest features/improvements that you, as a creator or fan would like).

g

Posted by Gareth Ochse on March 7, 2008 at 5:40 AM

Great post indeed, thanks and congratulations! One point though and sorry if others made it before. Actually it may not be so easy for an up-and-coming artist to create content that even a die-hard fan would spend $100 on over a year. Take a musician as an example. Just by a rough theoretical calculation, content that is worth $100 would call for 150-170 new tracks on iTunes. 10+ different CDs via CDBaby. All within a single (!) year. Of course, you can also rely on concert tickets, merchandise and stuff, but still, it may not be easy. Just think about your favourite band or artist. When did you really spend $100 on them in a year? I’m just thinking out loud.

Posted by Zoltan on March 7, 2008 at 4:21 AM

Hey Kevin, great post. I also think this is very applicable to the world of standup comedy and it reminds me of what comedian Doug Stanhope has been doing (on a slightly smaller level).

He’s realized that it’s easier for him to play in bars (where he can keep the tix fee) and draw true fans than to go the traditional comedy club route where he would get a flat fee. Plus, the crowds he draws are way better I’m sure.

Posted by Josh on March 7, 2008 at 12:13 AM

This is inspiring. I used to be a magazine editor penning editorials to 100,000 readers, and I used to joke that I already knew what it felt like to be famous since 100,000 readers (or at least those who read the editorials and noticed the top of the masthead) knew my name. Just the other day it occurred to me how successful I would be if I had 100,000 fans of my music. The irony is, even with 100,000 fans, I would be far from famous. Frankly, it would be perfect — no paparazzi, no plastic surgery! Now you’ve made me see that perhaps I can set my sights on 1000 (and in truth I have about 500 True Fans right now) and be closer to my goal than I imagined.

Thanks for this!

—Alexa

Posted by Alexa Weber Morales on March 6, 2008 at 11:40 PM

Kevin —

Great summation of something I’ve got some data on, that I addressed in a scholarly article, called The Deep Niche (Journal of Electronic Publishing), regarding our experiences at the National Academies Press.

A large proportion of the publications of the Press are exceedingly small-market publications — things that could not be affordably “marketed” in traditional terms. But many of our publications are sustainable because we’ve found the “1,000 true fans” of some abstruse topic.

While you’re mostly talking about artists — writers, artists, musicians — the same can also be true about ideas, or memes, or scientific conclusions.

In a world of a billion Web users worldwide, there’s a remarkably resilient market of interest in specific, pertinent content that is of use, and of interest to, a thousand (or ten thousand) readers who care enough to want the final publication. Making the material openly available means they find us, and can browse, and can make use of the content.

Thanks for your smart distillation of the functional application of the phenomenon. It may lead to some new economies, and new opportunities for creative expression, of small-market (and large-market) ideas.

Posted by Michael Jensen on March 6, 2008 at 9:17 PM

In Walden, Thoreau writes: “I too had woven a kind of basket of a delicate texture, but I had not made it worth any one’s while to buy them. Yet not the less, in my case, did I think it worth my while to weave them, and instead of studying how to make it worth men’s while to buy my baskets, I studied rather how to avoid the necessity of selling them.”

For an artist, art is that thing which simply must be done. I have experimented with a number of lifestyles and have schemed various schemes to make my art connect with money, but the result has always wasted my time and demeaned my art.

After 20 years of making art, what works best for me is doing the work without thought of consequence (neither money nor celebrity) and keeping the livelihood entirely separate.

It’s possible to find deep satisfaction in a “day job.”

I’m afraid there’s a prevalent attitude that a job must be a chore to be escaped at earliest opp, which is why so many artists and wannabes dream of instant wealth—a mindset which results in much conformist art.

They dream of the golden key which will unlock the door to a life of everlasting leisure.

In the meantime they dabble in get-rich-quick schemes and whittle down their art to the lowest common denominator.

Not everyone, of course.

And not me. (OK, maybe once.)

Least of all you.

But I suspect those people are out there—they might even be reading this article!—with dollar signs in their eyes and a hankering for making YOU their next True Fan….

Posted by robert on March 6, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Thanks to Swen for the data on Coulton. I am very eager to get more examples of those who are doing this.

Posted by Kevin Kelly on March 6, 2008 at 6:17 PM

David Michalczyk,

The purest, most introverted, most maniacally focused artist has to reach his audience somehow. Great artists will have patrons, or managers, who let them work and deal with the messy stuff. If fact many world-class artists have a True Fan base of LESS than 1,000.

Posted by Kevin Kelly on March 6, 2008 at 6:12 PM

Cainmark, I appreciate the pointer to Nina Paley.

Posted by Kevin Kelly on March 6, 2008 at 6:07 PM

Chris Baggott,

I’ll have to check out Dan Heimbrock. Thanks for the pointer.

Posted by Kevin Kelly on March 6, 2008 at 5:58 PM

T. Barnes, that’s a fantastic piece of data. Seems to work even in the service field as well.

Posted by Kevin Kelly on March 6, 2008 at 5:01 PM

Bowerbird, thanks for the tip on John Sinclair, whom I had not encountered yet.

Posted by Kevin Kelly on March 6, 2008 at 4:56 PM

A.J., Whether it was Dan Dennet or not, it’s good advice:

“The secret to happiness is to give your life to a cause greater than your self.”

Posted by Kevin Kelly on March 6, 2008 at 4:54 PM

Trace, good luck on your fan-funded biography of the Smashing Pumpkins. Let me know how it goes.

Posted by Kevin Kelly on March 6, 2008 at 4:09 PM

Working on our version. http://www.artemiseternal.com It’s a hard, hard, hard journey that is also long as all hell.

I hope everyone who loves the “1000” idea here can and will find an artist and/or project to get involved with. Talk is cheap. ;-) Do something. Move and be moved.

Posted by jess on March 6, 2008 at 3:45 PM

Kevin, you omit mentioning one obvious point —- don’t get involved with large corporations who are positively hostile to true fans.

(1) We all know the sad on-going story of fan-fic.

(2) Just because you have true fans, doesn’t mean they’re actually in a position to send you any money. I happen to like a number of (on-American) artists from my youth in the early 70s. Has the long tail helped me? Not yet. In spite of the fact that it would cost EMI nothing to make this material available for purchase via Amazon or iTMS, it’s not there. So these artists I like are making nothing, as is EMI —- a lose-lose situation which EMI appears to have zero interest in rectifying. I’ve no idea why they imagine that a middle-aged man with fixed music tastes is going to spend money on this week’s manufactured rap band rather than the tastes of his youth, but that seems to be their strategy for getting rich.

Posted by Maynard Handley on March 6, 2008 at 2:24 PM

Fantastic article - as an artist I’ve been trying to tackle the problem of making a living as an artist in a long tail economy on my blog, and your article has really helped.

Posted by Paul Watson on March 6, 2008 at 2:24 PM

Hm, this is something I wrestle with in my professional artistic life a lot and this is the first time I’ve seen it boiled down to achievable-seeming numbers like this; thanks, I needed that!

Posted by samantha Lynn on March 6, 2008 at 1:59 PM

Kevin,

Fantastic insight here… and it certainly has hit quite a few heads [which i’m glad to see!]. 1,000 seems like a solid, reasonable number to me. In my chosen field (music and performance) it is definitely viable but perhaps still difficult to maintain on my own.

I’m thankful for the ‘patrons’ i’ve had so far, have a donation button on my official page and myspace page that hints at special gifts for those that donate a bit more than postage would allow, and even have a few things hidden online that i send them as a way of showing gratitude for their support. Though i’m far from a comfortable living at the moment, the inroads i’m making are in line with your thoughts here.

The one stumbling block i see in this model [even as evidenced by this page] is that there are simply SO MANY people with creative aspirations these days, and the number continues to grow. I can foresee a point where everybody with access to a computer believes they should be nurturing some outlet, and thus expect their desire to result in financial gains too.

If everybody is fostering product-involved-genius, how do you justify your want for income? Where does the money ultimately come from if it’s just exchanging hands in support of one another?

As much as i enjoy the idea of being completely independent, i’ve enjoyed the ‘old-model’ way of label-side patronage for musicians more and feel it may still be the best way to kickstart one’s work towards artistic feasibility. My output as Phylum Sinter has involved about 12 independent labels so far [including compilation releases] and i’m still grateful for the offers to release with those that believe in my work enough to let me realize what i want to release without oppressive creativity shaping tactics on their part.

The one-to-one contact involved in keeping my fanbase alive has been an inspiration on it’s own, but maintaining it has a few implications for me — perhaps i’m not strong enough to take that much input directly and not have it influence what i had in mind?

Thanks for this one, i’m bookmarking it and will be re-reading it as i conspire in the near future.

Best regards, c.todd phylum_sinter

Posted by c.todd [phylum sinter] on March 6, 2008 at 1:36 PM

Funny you should mention it. This is a large part of the business model we work on…

SITE: http://toughcustomer.org/

SOUNDS: http://toughcustomer.org/wire

Posted by Tough Customer on March 6, 2008 at 12:07 PM

Personally I’m a bit sick of hearing about the long tail but this article got me thinking. 1000 seems like a good number yet to find 1000 you typically need to be seen by 100,000 or more don’t you? Any thoughts on how to get 1000 more quickly than building an audience of lessor fans in the range of 100 K?

Posted by Adam on March 6, 2008 at 11:28 AM

Kevin,

Outstanding and infinitely inspiring post. Based on your ideas, I’ve started a fan-based initiative to publish a biography of 90s alt-rock giants The Smashing Pumpkins.

Details here: http://www.fundable.com/groupactions/groupaction.2008-03-05.4170411700/view?searchterm=

Posted by Trace Thornton on March 6, 2008 at 10:52 AM

True fans look for the thing that lights their tree. I am a true fan of Joni Mitchell, Terry Pratchett, Saffire, and other artists, who have no relationship to anyone else—no kind of demographic or other statistic.

only a 1000 of the millions of folks out there…what a concept!

Posted by Charlotte Babb on March 6, 2008 at 10:25 AM

Kevin, found this post through Wil Wheaton’s blog, and I have to say it’s brilliant.

The 1,000 True Fans model is the perfect compromise between endless (and near-impossible… and do you really want that anyway?) striving for (cough) Britney-level crazed stardom, or toiling for years in Ramen-noodle-fueled obscurity.

I think you inspired a lot of people with this one. Thank you.

Posted by Kristi on March 6, 2008 at 10:00 AM

I love this concept. It give me hope that I will be able to make even a modest amount of income with the art I am going to begin selling. Thanks for expressing this so articulately and providing real examples of how this can work.

Posted by Denise Mares on March 6, 2008 at 9:47 AM

Kevin: This is a great post. Thanks for writing it. I love the idea of 1,000 true fans.
Your post has changed my thinking about how to build my career and life success on line coaching business. All the best, Bud Bilanich The Common Sense Guy www.SuccessCommonSense.com

Posted by Bud Bilanich on March 6, 2008 at 8:56 AM

Excellent post. In the last year and a half I started seriously pursuing a career as a visual artist and have already acquired several true fans. This post is a great encouragement to keep going personally and helpful for anyone else whose just starting out.

Posted by Anima on March 6, 2008 at 8:47 AM

We never put it quite this way, but the “1000 True Fans” was on our minds when we founded TuneCore. We wanted to give artists a way to monetize that relationship, and the best way was to break down barriers to the digital shelves. With iTunes now the 2nd largest music seller in the world, of any kind, it’s a place to send those 1000 folks.

Because we don’t take any %, we don’t exploit the long tail, we let the artist exploit it. Isn’t that the only fair way?

—Peter peter@tunecore.com

Posted by Peter Wells on March 6, 2008 at 8:09 AM

Great article, i have been doing this style of thing for the last 4 years (of the 13 years i have been running a label). Totally abandoning the distribution deal i had and going it completely alone.

My own magic figure is lower than 1000 but i break even on a yearly basis and am free to create what the hell i want when i want it. A lot is given away for free, for example the whole of 2006 i worked on a project where each day i made and gave away audio for free online giving away over 600 tracks in this time. That is an unprecidented project even now.

Other releases are pre-sold directly to the people i know are interested totally bypassing traditional forms of distribution completely.

I also achieve this with no press anymore because i send no promos out and people just find what i do via online search and links which build up from those who support what i do.

Ultimate freedom is the way forward with no link to the dying industry and other social networking waste of times like myspace, facebook, iTunes and last fm. Although these can spread the word they also eat into your creative time it’s a balancing act. Also charging for MP3s is laughable certainly in the way iTunes run their business in a per track model.

The main thing is the work and being able to work, do the work and don’t worry about distribution. Ultimately it’s all about what you create.

Support total independence.

Posted by V/Vm on March 6, 2008 at 7:38 AM

Thank you for the words of inspiration.

It is difficult to succeed as an artist, or in my case, a fan making the case of becoming an artist. I feel that most of my peers (DJs and musicians) have this belief that the only way to make an artist living is to ‘sell out’ to what the majority is demanding.

That ideology has produced the likes of MTV or anything on YouTube with over a million hits. So much talent has fallen into groupthink when there were so many that could have done the 1,000 True Fan model and managed to live comfortably.

Since selling out to make a blockbuster is beyond my integrity (or skills perhaps?), making 1000 true fans will definitely be a plausible goal as I dream of getting to do what I love to do for people that find it lovely!

I once heard someone say (I think it was Dan Dennet at a TED conference) that the secret to happiness is to give your life to a cause greater than your self…something along those lines… -A.J.

Posted by A.J. on March 6, 2008 at 6:54 AM

It’s interesting (at least to me) that I arrived at my current ‘fiscal plan’ nt by having a vision and setting a goal, but by backing into it. Why release ‘Meatbot Massacre’ over the internet? Because the hobby game magazines that might have considered it were dead. Why free? Because I didn’t want the hassle of building an online store. Why ransom it? I knew about how much I’d get paid, one time, if I’d placed it in one of those defunct magazines. I put a greed premium on that and asked for it. It was all a process of making sausage out of scraps.

Turns out, sausage is delicious.

Something I keep coming back to, when contemplating the changing landscape of publishing and creativity, is a William Gibson riff in ‘Spook Country.’ One character is an ex-pop star turned spy* and in one conversation, someone points out that the time when there could BE pop stars was less than a hundred years. The technology had to be at a certain, very unstable point: Advanced enough to make recorded music, but still so clumsy and fussy and primitive that professionals were required to operate it. That expertise allowed the record companies to exist, because releasing a record was too expensive or time-consuming to do on a lark. Now, that’s no longer so. To get a really good, professional-quality recording mass produced on a CD released into Wal-Mart… okay, sure, that’s still a job of work. But so many listen to mp3s that can’t even capture a professional degree of clarity, and they don’t care. Why should the artist?

Posted by Greg Stolze on March 6, 2008 at 5:16 AM

Fantastic post Kevin, you’ve clearly hit a chord with lots of people, and explained the idea in a really clean way - you make it sound so simple! As a lifelong music fan and founder of We7 which is all about countering piracy, championing and paying new artists I really enjoyed reading this and the enthusiastic response you’ve had. The True Fans have always been out there acting as motivated evangelists, I hope that changing models in the arts and the online world means these die-hard enthusiasts get the thanks they deserve. For all the upheaval in the music industry, this is the sort of positive outcome I’m delighted to hear being discussed. Steve Purdham, CEO, www.we7.com

Posted by Steve Purdham on March 6, 2008 at 3:23 AM

Good article. I’ve been thinking along the same path for a while, but I haven’t even dared think the thought of giving up my full-time job to actually try it. I run a blog, and I create music, but so far it hasn’t paid off. I’m running a few small Google Adsense text-ads, but the traffic on my site is really low so I make next to no money ($30 in half a year). Google Adsense is obviously not intended for strange little blogs about moustache wax and fixed gear bicycles. A tip-jar would probably work better. Out of the 100 or so people who actually visit the blog every day maybe one can become a True Fan?

Posted by Martin Olsson on March 6, 2008 at 1:07 AM

john sinclair, the detroit poet, has espoused this identical idea for a while now (10 years?), based on actual experience from the ground up (which means it triangulates your perspective), but he pegs the number at 2000

so artists, don’t give up if “it’s not working” when you hit 1000! because the first thousand makes it that much easier to get the second…

-bowerbird

Posted by bowerbird on March 5, 2008 at 11:47 PM

This is a great post and I shared it on my blog. I’ve been thinking about it since it first posted and here’s one thing that comes to mind: I’m a massage therapist and I’ve worked freelance for almost two decades. The third year was the year I was in the black, and that was the year that my client base reached about 1,000. That was the year I quit the day job.

Now, 1,000 folks didn’t see me all at once and I certainly didn’t work every day but I always made my rent without a problem. Each client had a different rhythm. Some only saw me in crisis-mode. Some saw me weekly. Some only worked with me during birthdays or holidays. The exact number of clients was a bit fluid and many came and went.

It’s worth noting that I launched my practice pre-Internet, but I still think you’re on the money. Although, I wouldn’t say my clients are fans although they must think I’m pretty cool or they wouldn’t return.

I guess the point is that in reference to your topic, the same concepts hold true for small service oriented business and freelancers like myself.

Posted by T. Barnes on March 5, 2008 at 10:01 PM

I’m pretty overwhelmed really. In a good way. I’m a designer and entrepreneur. I have several projects in the oven and I’m constantly thinking about how to improve, make more authentic, reach out on an emotional level, with every venture. Thank you for inspiring a new level of thought and promise.

Posted by Mike Dunford on March 5, 2008 at 8:57 PM

It strikes me that some writers and publishers already pursue a similar idea through cultivating “true fan” booksellers through review copy mailings, author’s personal email lists and things like that. I know a couple of smart publishers who keep individual booksellers in the loop about writers we’ve reviewed or blurbed before, and some go above and beyond by occasionally getting new writers to us whose work they think we might enjoy (based on those earlier reviews) and hence sell to many, many “casual fans.” But most just take the review and run, pursuing the holy grail of high-profile TV show appearances, and discounting the importance of frontline booksellers who can handsell 50 to 100 copies of writer X’s new book (and keep handselling past the first 15 minutes of TV fame).

You find 50 true fan booksellers and they’ll find you 5000 sales. You build on that and pretty soon those 50 booksellers are accounting for solid, dependable backlist sales and an ever-growing frontlist success.

I love this idea. It’s a great way to reframe the way we think of our businesses. Thanks, Kevin.

Posted by